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 Opinion and Insight

 
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fullissue
02 01 19 WOWS FULL ISSUE
An Alternative Way To View Or Print The Entire Current Issue As A Single Document
2/01/19
Attention Paid-Up Subscribers: To read or print the entire current issue as a single document, use the "easyprint" feature in the "Nav bar" to the right to open it, or any of WOWS' individual features, as an Adobe PDF file, and then print it. Alternatively, you can click "more" at the bottom of this paragraph and then click the red Adobe icon that appears. Your second click will download the full issue .pdf file of WOWS' latest issue to your computer, a process that -- depending on the file size and your connection speed -- might take more than the blink of an eye. Then, depending on preferences you've set on your device, it will either open automatically or show up in your downloads folder, waiting to be opened. [More]
 
listeningin
Volatility & Optionality - Tom Petrie
Political Realities, Market Fragility & A Strong U.S. Export Position
2/01/19
When I last interviewed Petrie Partner’s non pareil founder, Thomas A. Petrie in these pages, just about exactly three years ago, I wrote, “For clear-eyed and level-headed insight into what’s ailing oil, and just how contagious it might — or might not — be, I called Tom Petrie, he of Denver’s Petrie Partners and noted author. Despite his long and storied career as an oil patch investment banker, Tom is still, quite simply, the most insightful and markets-savvy energy analyst I’ve ever come across — and I know quite a few."

I wouldn’t change a word, though gosh knows the energy market and the world have changed quite a bit. Remarkably in ways aligned with Tom’s 2016 musings." [More]
 
guestperspectives
The Case For Defense
Martin Capital Sticking With Bearish Long-Term View In 2019
2/01/19 8:00 AM
By Frank K Martin
Performance Summary
Although the S&P 500 (including dividends) declined 4.39% for the year, all our client portfolios were up low single digits after fees.
 
Even the market’s 19% plunge from September 20 through year-end had little negative effect on our performance. [More]

 
“Tax The Rich”
Let’s Look At The Facts: Top 5% Pay 59.6% Of Income Taxes
2/01/19 7:00 AM
By Robert Eisenbeis
As the political season begins to heat up for 2020, we have seen an increasing number of proposals to provide free education, free healthcare, a universal guarantee of a living wage, etc. With an historic level of public debt topping $21 trillion and a deficit of nearly $1 trillion and projected to climb even more in 2019, the logical question is how will the advocates for all those free programs pay for their suggestions, some of which have been priced out in the neighborhood of $30 trillion? The almost universal response is to raise tax rates on the wealthy so that they can “pay their fair share.” Let’s look at some facts. [More]

 
chartsightings
“Normal Markets”
A Big Shift Seems In The Works To Cyclicals And Value Stocks
2/01/19 9:01 AM
By Blaze Tankersley
Over the last several months we have seen some rather intriguing and I suspect, key, developments begin to show up in our relative strength work. I had begun slowly building value arguments since we started talking about EM, KWEB and industrials in the beginning of 4q and now pitching value broadly at the turn of the year in many cyclical areas but it’s been awfully hard to really embrace this thought given the action into December in SPX, naturally. [More]

 
Long-Term Chart Views
Money Supply, GDP, Inflation, Stock Market Returns, Fed Assets
2/01/19 8:01 AM
By Ron Griess
We really like to draw pictures of our long-term data to find out if the patterns might tell a story. One chart shows how closely Nominal GDP and M2 Money Supply have grown in the past 93 years. [More]

 
Made In China
Global Recession And Bear Market
2/01/19 7:01 AM
By Michael Belkin
The Chinese economic downturn is spreading through corporate earnings like gangrene. Recently Apple, Intel, Samsung, Taiwan Semi, Nvidia, and Caterpillar have all missed earnings and revenue targets and/or reduced forward guidance, blaming China. [More]

 
deepdive
Delete Social Media
Study Shows People Happier Without Facebook Fixes
2/01/19 8:00 AM
By Hunt Allcott, Luca Braghieri, Sarah Eichmeyer, and Matthew Gentzkow
The rise of social media has provoked both optimism about potential societal benefits and concern about harms such as addiction, depression, and political polarization. [More]

 
Flawed Logic
Why The “Twin Deficits” Argument Generates Misplaced Fears
2/01/19 7:00 AM
By L Randall Wray
Remarks delivered at the UBS European Conference in London on November 13, 2018. [More]

 
Modern Monetary Theory
Some Odd Twist And Turns In The Evolution Of Macroeconomics
2/01/19 6:00 AM
By Jörg Bibow
Mainstream neoclassical economics is hooked on the idea of individual worker-savers as prime movers in capitalist market economies. [More]

 
Minsky’s Forgotten Lessons
10 Years After Lehman, Revisiting Economic Crisis Prevention
2/01/19 5:00 AM
By Jan Kregel
The 10th anniversary of the September collapse of the U.S. [More]

 
Citizenship Question
Census Query Another Shady Way To Skew Representation
2/01/19 4:00 AM
By Joel Perlmann
By now most readers will know that the Trump administration and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross in particular have been pressing for a “reinstatement” of a question on citizenship status to the U.S. [More]

 
acuteobservations
Acute Observations, February 1, 2019
Perceptive Commentary from January 12-February 1, 2019
2/01/19 8:00 AM
Walt Hickey
On March 1, Tesla will owe $920 million to creditors. It’s a convertible note, meaning that Tesla will either have to pay in cash or, if their stock is at a certain level, they can avoid the payment by exchanging the note for a mix of stock and cash. The issue? Tesla needs to be worth $359.87 per share to hit that swap level, and they’d need to jump about 21 percent from their current level to make that possible. [More]

 
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