A Journal of Independent Research, Analysis,
 Opinion and Insight

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Grounded, Imagining Growth
Ken McAtamney Blends Creativity, Process, Finds Sustainable Winners
I’ll admit it. Alarm bells go off in my head when a portfolio manager starts talking about needing a lot of “creativity to imagine” just how successful the fundamentally great, sustainable growth company stocks he’s buying will be — five or 10 years down the road. But Ken McAtamney said precisely that very early in our recent interview and I kept listening — intently. The man’s passion for investing is palpable.

SEC Reboot
New Chair Outlines Agenda; Takes Direct Aim At Market Structure
6/11/21 8:00 AM
By Gary Gensler
Having started at the SEC last month, I have been struck by the sheer breadth and scope of the capital markets and the agency’s work. The SEC oversees the nearly $100-trillion capital markets, or measured another way, about $110 trillion in assets under management.

Return Of The Tip Jar
May Rise In Wait Staff Pay Likely Reflects Addition of Gratuities
6/11/21 7:00 AM
By Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood
Within the “something for every ideologue” commentary we’re all reading about last Friday’s May payroll report, Josh Bivens at Economic Policy Institute took an in-depth look at average hourly earnings trends for bartenders, full-service and limited-service restaurant workers that suggests the May acceleration in Leisure & Hospitality wages may provide even “less evidence of a sector-specific shortage than previously thought.”

He ties the fall in wages among food-service workers to bar and full-service restaurant workers, over one-third of sectoral employment, where tips are a big part of income. We highly recommend a look at his tables where he frames the reallocations of hours worked among those employed in full-service restaurants and bars against those in limited-service restaurants during two periods: February to April 2020, and December 2020 to March 2021.

Divergent Signals
Exploring Indicators Of Labor Market Slack
6/11/21 6:00 AM
By Troy Gilchrist and Bart Hobijn
A broad dashboard of indicators is sending mixed signals about the state of the labor market. Some indicators have deviated widely from their normal historical relationships since the onset of COVID-19. [More]

Why This Isn’t The 1970s
Sustained Inflationary Pressures Just Aren’t In The Cards
6/11/21 5:00 AM
By Dave Rosenberg
The inflationary pressures we are seeing in some of the data releases recently may be disconcerting, but we pride ourselves in looking at the big picture and not getting bogged down by transitory events. And the view from 10,000 feet tells us that we should not anticipate a long period of sustained inflation like that of the 1970s, though some market pundits are convinced we are headed for an inflationary or even a hyperinflationary environment.

Risks And Rewards
Taking Advantage Of 21st Century’s Irrational Trading
6/11/21 4:00 AM
By Tim Quast
Investor relations involves risk.  And that’s good.

Guessing Games
Monetary Policy Scenario Analysis As A Summer Pastime
6/11/21 3:00 AM
By Dimitri Balatsos
Handicapping central bank policy is a parlor game and fodder for talking heads. Beyond pure guesses, there are no reliable models to foretell changes in the course of monetary policy.

Saner Than You Think
The Housing Market, At Least, Is No Bubble; Just Recovering
6/11/21 2:00 AM
By Doug Ramsey
Growth stocks, “meme” stocks, and most cryptocurrencies meet our subjective criteria for what constitutes a bubble. But what about the US housing market — where realtors now outnumber the number of houses for sale, and a few overzealous buyers have offered to name offspring after the sellers?  

It’s no bubble.

Another Housing Bust?
No Shade Of 2008, But House Party Coming Off the Boil
6/11/21 1:00 AM
By A Gary Shilling
The US single-family housing market has been on a tear (Chart 1), raising two important questions. Is this a bubble that will burst? And when will the bonanza end? Our October 2020 Insight examined the then-soaring housing market in detail while a second article asked, “What Could Spoil The House Party?” The spoilers are coming into view.

NDX Laggard Bounces
Rowdy Betting Bulls Stirring The Pot: What’s It Mean?
6/11/21 8:20 AM
By Blaze Tankersley
Back on 5/25 we looked at the NDX coming off the lows and I wrote,

“I wanted to put up the NDX chart today, this follows on my note about SOX and the Elliott Wave setup there, that we looked at last week. This is naturally a very similar situation in NDX and again, I think the market showed you that the invalidation levels on the bullish counts lie under the 5/19 reversal bar. [More]

Playing Catch-Up?
Nasdaq Getting Closer To Hurdling Resistance
6/11/21 7:20 AM
By Andrew Addison
After months of weakening internals, the OTC Composite Index is getting closer to hurdling resistance. The daily Composite chart shows that the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages broke out of a 2-month base. [More]

Market Semiotics
Techs Suspiciously Overbought; Lumber, Stuff Slyly Over The Top
6/11/21 6:20 AM
By Woody Dorsey
EQUITY STRATEGY: The Technology area (QQQ) has recent evidenced some heroic bidding in the face of unknowns. Bravo. [More]

Real Life Amid Pandemic
Monitoring The Crisis — And The Response In Four Parts
6/11/21 8:00 AM
By The American Voices Project
The COVID-19 pandemic has raised many questions. [More]

Wage Pressures
What Is Labor Market Signalling?
6/11/21 7:00 AM
By Julie L Hotchkiss
Wage pressures among the newly employed in low-wage service occupations appear to be the result of normal economic forces, likely reflecting demand surges for — and a reluctant supply of — workers in occupations particularly hard hit by pandemic-induced economic shutdowns. [More]

Spoiler: U.S. Thrived
End Of WWII Brought Huge Debt, Inflation, Pent-Up Demand
6/11/21 6:00 AM
By Federico S Mandelman
The COVID-19 pandemic produced a massive decline in US consumption in 2020 and swift fiscal and monetary policy responses. [More]

Acute Observations, June 11, 2021
Perceptive Commentary from May 15-June 11, 2021
6/11/21 8:00 AM
Blaze Tankersley
The market seems to have descended into an outright casino at this point as Wall Street Bets runs rough shod over shorts and continues to push seemingly nonsensical trades to fantastic levels. Can you make a bad company a good one simply by buying up the stock? Are pyramid schemes legit investing now? This is disturbing, destabilizing action but I am really not sure what to do about it other than to have a nagging sick feeling this is not at all headed somewhere good.
The Daily Blaze
3|5 Global Analytics
June 9, 2021

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