A Journal of Independent Research, Analysis,
 Opinion and Insight

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Disinflation Isn't Dead
What the Inflation Fearmongers Are Missing, According to Dan Alpert
“If your mission is to reduce the size of government, then anytime you can attack government spending — blame it for inflation — that’s a win.”

That quote is just a small sample of the pragmatic but erudite economic, financial and political insights you’ll find Daniel Alpert sprinkling effortlessly through our recent conversation — captured and recreated for you in the pages that follow. 

It could scarcely be more timely. Forget, if you can all the —antics is too nice a description — we’ve had to watch the sharply divided Congress engage in this year as the red team and the blue team sparred over whether the newly elected President would be allowed to turn some of his campaign planks into law.  It’s been plain ugly.

Ignore Inflation Blip
The Markets Are Right In Their Skepticism Of Headline Claims
11/19/21 8:00 AM
By Anatole Kaletsky
Considering last week’s headlines about U.S. inflation exploding to 6.2%, a level not seen since 1990, many investors and most economists seem baffled, or even angry, about how equities keep hitting new highs while bond yields remain remarkably stable in a narrow trading range of 1.25% to 1.75%.

Aging Prematurely
Current Era Is Warping Many Old Standards — For Now
11/19/21 7:00 AM
By Doug Ramsey
Much like baseball’s Steroids Era, the financial markets’ post-COVID era has warped old standards of “what’s possible.”

For years, the “greatest-trade ever” was considered to be the $1 billion made in a single day in 1992 by the Quantum Fund’s short bet on the British pound. Then, during the 2008 financial crisis, hedge-fund manager, John Paulson, personally pocketed $4 billion after an intricate bet against subprime mortgages paid off.

Make Every Day Count
Follow What Really Motivates Traders and Investors
11/19/21 6:00 AM
By Tim Quast
A lot has happened on Nov 17.

Queen Elizabeth took the throne in 1558.

Time For Change
A Central Clearinghouse, Registration Of Prop Traders & More
11/19/21 5:00 AM
By Gary Gensler
Thank you for that kind introduction. It’s good to be here for the seventh annual US Treasury Market Conference.

Preparing For The Unknown
Treasury Market Overhaul Is Required
11/19/21 4:00 AM
By John C Williams
Good morning, and welcome to the seventh annual US Treasury Market Conference. This is our second time gathering virtually.

Polarized Partisan Perceptions
Are High Quit Rates Pushing Small Biz Owners Into A Funk?
11/19/21 8:20 AM
By Kate Welling
Hat tip to Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal for not just noting the yawning gap in the consumer sentiment between Republicans and Democrats shown in the latest University of Michigan survey, but pointing out a provocative possible explanation for GOP sentiment registering even lower today than at the nadir of the Great Financial Crisis.

As Joe pointed out, “Generally everyone eats and everyone consumes gasoline, so by and large people are experiencing the same economy, regardless of party ID.”  But there’s one distinctive element of today’s economy, Joe added, that might be hitting Republican small business owners particularly harder — the record number of people quitting their jobs. [More]

New American Dream
Real Speculators Retire On Crypto Now
11/19/21 7:20 AM
By Blaze Tankersley
A few random charts today as we continue to wait on a bit of general market consolidation. Everyone is worried that the price of crude is too high as politicians debate how to solve the problem. [More]

How High The Moon?
Inflation Indicators And Time To Swap Bitcoin For Gold
11/19/21 6:20 AM
By Andrew Addison
AECOM was recommended @35.82 in the June 18, 2019 Report. Since then, it has outperformed the S&P 1500 Index by +24%.

Drug Innovation
Would Price Restraints Really Stop Innovation?
11/19/21 8:00 AM
By Rena Conti, Richard G Frank, and Jonathan Gruber
The fundamental dilemma in prescription drug policy is often understood to be the tradeoff between establishing incentives for innovation that produces new cures through high product prices and the fact that high prices can and do strain the ability of consumers and taxpayers to afford the high prices to support that innovation. [More]

U.S. Income Distribution
Trends And Issues
11/19/21 7:00 AM
By Sarah A Donovan, Marc Labonte, Joseph Dalaker and Paul D Romero
Income inequality — that is, the extent to which individuals’ or households’ incomes differ — has increased in the United States since the 1970s. [More]

Predicting U.S. Downturns
The Economics Of Walking About
11/19/21 6:00 AM
David G Blanchflower and Alex Bryson
Economic shocks are notoriously difficult to predict but recent research suggests qualitative metrics about economic actors’ expectations are predictive of downturns. [More]

Debt Skew
Investigating Gender, Race & Education In Delinquencies
11/19/21 5:00 AM
By Ruchi Avtar, Rajashri Chakrabarti, and Kasey Chatterji-Len
Household debt has risen markedly since 2013 and amounts to more than $15 trillion dollars. [More]

Acute Observations, November 19, 2021
Perceptive Commentary from November 1-19, 2021
11/19/21 8:00 AM
President Joe Biden
The legislation, the largest federal investment in infrastructure in more than a decade, is a central component of Mr. Biden’s domestic-policy agenda and marks a rare bipartisan policy win for the White House.

“The bill I’m about to sign is proof that despite the cynics, Democrats and Republicans can come together and deliver results,” Mr.