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09 28 2018 WOWS FULL ISSUE
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Price and Patience
Confluence Investment's Dan Winter Finds Value Through Thinking Differently
9/28/18 3:13 AM
There’s nothing flashy about Daniel Winter, the fella whose photograph enlivens this week’s cover, and that suits Dan just fine. Also, Confluence Investment Management, the St. Louis-based independent registered investment advisor where Dan chairs the portfolio management committee. Both the man and the firm are staunchly independent “different thinkers” with a decided value bent and a fierce conservative Midwestern commitment to preserving client capital — while also growing it in investment cycles, thick and thin. [More]
Global Oil Gets Bullish
Even Natural Gas Showing Signs Of Life
9/28/18 8:00 AM
By Blaze Tankersley
Crude commodity prices are breaking out of the bullish consolidations we have been discussing recently. The equities are making a stronger effort now but still there is a tremendous amount of reluctance and skepticism in the action. [More]

Flying At Maximum Altitude
When Things Can Scarcely Get Better, The Outlook Slopes Down
9/28/18 7:00 AM
By Albert M Wojnilower
Over the last few months, there has been little change in the pattern of economic data. Payrolls have continued to expand at about 200,000 persons each month, real GDP has grown at about 3%, and the unemployment rate has hovered just below 4% — all of these are well ahead of their estimated trend values. [More]

Extended Markets
Signposts Are There, For The Reading Here
9/28/18 6:00 AM
By Dave Rosenberg
There’s a few market related points worth making as the major equity averages make new highs. All of a sudden, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are not validating this last leg of what obviously is a speculative and momentum-based rally. [More]

Defensive Stocks...
The Canary In The Coalmine?
9/28/18 5:00 AM
By James Paulsen
Despite a very strong economy, defensive stocks have been matching the performance of the overall stock market since early this year. Indeed, in the last three months, while the S&P 500 has returned to a new record high, the top four leading S&P 500 sectors have been those normally considered defensive (i.e., Health Care, Telecom, Utilities, and Consumer Staples), and the five sectors which have trailed the S&P 500 are much more cyclical (Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Financials, Materials, and Energy). [More]

Unfair Exchange
The State Of America’s Stock Markets
9/28/18 4:00 AM
By Robert J Jackson
Thank you so much, JW [Verret] and Ty [Gellasch], for that incredibly kind introduction. It’s a real honor to be here with you both today at George Mason, talking about the only issue you two have ever agreed on. [More]

Nasdaq Indices Stall?
SOX Weakens; A Pairs Trade In Info Tech
9/28/18 9:01 AM
By Andrew Addison
NASDAQ COMPOSITE Index stalled at 18-year trendline resistance. After its initial decline from the 2000 peak, this is the area where the rally failed. [More]

New Record High!
Market Price To GDP Ratio Tops 2000’s Lunacy
9/28/18 8:01 AM
By Ron Griess
We use the 2Q2018 Nominal and August Market Capitalization to calculate the ration for this chart. The ratio for August is 177.40%. [More]

Big Spike In SPY Assets
Buying Interest In Spy Tipped Breakout In S&P 500
9/28/18 7:01 AM
By John Kosar
The total net assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) made a huge one-day spike higher on September 18th, by $5.4 billion or 2.0%, which pushed them back above their 21-day moving average to suggest an emerging new trend of monthly expansion.  Should this expansion continue, it is likely to fuel a rise in the S&P 500 (SPX) to 3,000, the upside target we first started talking about back in early May. [More]

It’s Not Just Gender
Research Reveals It’s Only Married Men Who Get Fatter Paychecks
9/28/18 6:01 AM
By Guillaume Vandenbroucke
“The gender wage gap remains a complicated topic. But progress may come from asking different questions. [More]

Digital Divide In Asia
Asia Builds Much Of IT; Some Residents Have, But Many Have Not
9/28/18 5:01 AM
By IMF Blog
The countries of Southeast Asia are young — more than half of its 643 million people are under 30 — and together they live in an economy of $2.8 trillion. The ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are moving toward greater economic integration, and the region should be at the tip of the digital spear. [More]

U.S.-China Trade War
It Isn’t Likely To Be Ending Soon...
9/28/18 8:00 AM
By Eswar Prasad
Eswar Prasad analyzes the latest round of escalating tariffs between the US. [More]

What U.S. Companies Are Putting Foreign Profits Brought Home
9/28/18 7:00 AM
By Michael Smolyansky, Gustavo Suarez, and Alexandra Tabova
We investigate how companies with large holdings of cash abroad have used those funds following the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which eliminated prior tax disincentives on the repatriation of foreign earnings. [More]

Contrary To Stereotypes
Recent Immigrants Prone To Be College-Educated Asians
9/28/18 6:00 AM
By William H Frey
Many politicians — including President Donald Trump — suggest that the nation is being overwhelmed by less skilled immigrants from Mexico and the rest of Latin America, necessitating the government building a wall across the southern border. [More]

Going Mainstream
The Future Of ESG Investing
9/28/18 5:00 AM
By Harry Hummels, Rob Bauer and Joyce Mertens
Over the past decade, a quiet revolution has been taking place in the world of investment; now, Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing is going mainstream. [More]

Impact Investing
Mapping The Market Ecosystem
9/28/18 4:00 AM
By Principles for Responsible Investment
Over the last decade, impact investing has shifted from a disruptive investment concept to a complex and rich investment ecosystem. [More]

Dismal Trends
Stagnating Economy And Growing Inequality In The U.S.
9/28/18 3:00 AM
By Ajit Zacharias, Thomas Masterson, and Fernando Rios-Avila
In this policy brief, Ajit Zacharias, Thomas Masterson, and Fernando Rios-Avila update the latest results of the Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being (LIMEW) for U.S. [More]

Acute Observations, September 28, 2018
Perceptive Commentary from September 14-28, 2018
9/28/18 8:00 AM
Tom Holland
Even if U.S. shale producers can defy production bottlenecks to add another 1.6mn bpd over the next 12 months, if Saudi can bring into play its entire claimed 1.5mn bpd in spare capacity, and if Russia can bring on stream its estimated 200,000 bpd of excess capacity (following recent production increases), the world is still likely to face a small oil supply shortfall next year of several hundred thousand barrels a day.

That shortfall could potentially be met by a further draw down in stocks plus some demand destruction from elevated prices. [More]

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