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 Opinion and Insight

 
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fullissue
WOWS — Full Issue
An Alternative Way To View Or Print The Entire Current Issue As A Single Document
8/17/18 2:00 PM
Attention Paid-Up Subscribers: To read or print the entire current issue as a single document, use the "easyprint" feature in the "Nav bar" to the right to open it, or any of WOWS' individual features, as an Adobe PDF file, and then print it. Alternatively, you can click "more" at the bottom of this paragraph and then click the red Adobe icon that appears. Your second click will download the full issue .pdf file of WOWS' latest issue to your computer, a process that -- depending on the file size and your connection speed -- might take more than the blink of an eye. Then, depending on preferences you've set on your device, it will either open automatically or show up in your downloads folder, waiting to be opened. [More]
 
listeningin
Emerging Markets Are His Challenge
But Driehaus Capital's Howard Schwab Isn't Unabashedly Bullish
8/17/18 8:00 AM
Howard Schwab, whose youthful visage in the nearby photo belies not just his recently celebrated 40th birthday but, even more, the 17 years he has spent an an analyst and portfolio manager guiding growth portfolios through the often treacherous twists and turns of market fortune in the first couple of decades of the Twenty-First Century. At times, his career timing has seemed impeccable — if of the sort you wouldn’t wish on your worst enemy. Going to work right out of college for renowned growth momentum investor Richard Driehaus, for example — in 2001, just as the internet bubble popped. 

Yet Howie, who now oversees $3 billion-plus of emerging markets investments all across the equity capitalization spectrum, as well as a multi-asset strategy for Chicago-based Driehaus Capital Management, has demonstrated a singular knack for embracing those challenges, finding winning investments in fraught markets and creating new vehicles to funnel assets into them. [More]
 
guestperspectives
Race Of Our Lives, 2.0
Facing Hard Reality: It’s Not “Just Another Heat Wave”
8/17/18 8:00 AM
By Jeremy Grantham
It was always going to be difficult for us — Homo sapiens — to deal with the long-term, slow-burning problems that threaten us today: climate change, population growth, increasing environmental toxicity, and the impact of all these three on the future ability to feed the 11 billion people projected for 2100.
 
Our main disadvantage is that our species has developed over the last few hundred thousand years not to address this kind of long-term, slow-burning issue, but to stay alive and well-fed today and perhaps tomorrow. Beyond that we have a history of responding well only to more immediate and tangible threats like war. [More]

 
Market’s Sea Change
What The Bond Market Is Trying To Tell Us
8/17/18 7:00 AM
By Gregg S Fisher
Markets (equities and fixed income) have been more volatile in 2018 in the wake of rising interest rates, higher inflation, and geopolitical risk.

The U.S. stock market, underpinned by a strong economy and robust earnings growth, has outperformed foreign markets, but U.S. [More]

 
Don’t Believe The Hype
Crypto Derivatives? Savvy Institutional Investors Could Care Less
8/17/18 6:00 AM
By Joe Saluzzi
Barely a day goes by when we don’t see an article that claims there will soon be a boom in institutional demand for cryptocurrencies.  CNBC recently ran an article that proclaimed “Goldman Sachs-backed Circle sees boom in crypto demand from institutional investors, despite bear market” In addition to the media hype, there continues to be a litany of Wall Street and regulatory veterans that are flocking to crypto.
 
The latest announcement was that former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt has joined the board of Ominex, a crypto trading platform. [More]

 
A BAD Tech Trend!
Too Much Of A Good Thing Can Be A Sell Signal
8/17/18 5:00 AM
By James Paulsen
Technology stocks have outpaced the overall market during the last five years, and by an accelerating margin since the end of 2016. Naturally, they have become market darlings, replete with stories about remarkably innovative products with phenomenal growth potential. They are synonymous with momentum investing and, because investors are comforted by “the trend is your friend,” many are now riding the same wave of popular tech names. [More]

 
chartsightings
An Echo Of 1997-’98
Dealing With A Crisis Stemming From Strength...
8/17/18 7:01 AM
By Blaze Tankersley
As I looked over the action yesterday it seemed clear that the broad SPX buyer was working under the assumption he could outlast the weakening impulse being generated in FX. Given how sharply some of these EM FX pairs have moved already and the heavy selling already seen in Euro and Sino equity markets, that was not an unexpected or unreasonable gambit as the market sorts this episode of angst out. [More]

 
Global Angst
OECD Composite Leading Indicators’ Sagging Outlook
8/17/18 6:01 AM
By John Hussman
OECD Composite Leading Indicators. 32-country diffusion global index of 3-month changes charts a sick course. [More]

 
EM And FX Volatility
Currencies And Inflation Hit Markets
8/17/18 5:01 AM
By Ron Griess
Emerging markets, both currency and stock, were the center of attention last week. The Turkish lira slid over 20% for the week. [More]

 
deepdive
Rise Of Hedge Fund Activism
And The Subversion Of Shareholder Democracy
8/17/18 8:00 AM
By Jang-Sup Shin
This paper explains how hedge-fund activists are exerting power over corporate resource allocation far in excess of the actual voting power of their shareholdings. [More]

 
Regulatory Alchemy
Big Banks Magic Nullification Of Dodd-Frank Rule On Swaps
8/17/18 7:00 AM
By Michael Greenberger
The multi-trillion dollar market for, what was at that time wholly unregulated, over-the-counter derivatives (“swaps”) is widely viewed as a principal cause of the 2008 worldwide financial meltdown. [More]

 
Tariffs & Trade
Hint: Tariffs On Imports Don’t Reduce Trade Deficits
8/17/18 6:00 AM
By Mary Amiti, Mi Dai, Robert C Feenstra, and John Romalis
Import tariffs are on the rise in the United States, with a long list of new tariffs imposed in the last few months — 25 percent on steel imports, 10 percent on aluminum, and 25 percent on $50 billion of goods from China — and possibly more to come. [More]

 
The Missing Profits
How Nations’ Taxes End Up In Multinationals’ Pockets
8/17/18 5:00 AM
By Thomas R Tørsløv, Ludvig S Wier, Gabriel Zucman
By combining new macroeconomic statistics on the activities of multinational companies with the national accounts of tax havens and the world's other countries, we estimate that close to 40% of multinational profits are shifted to low-tax countries each year. [More]

 
China’s Headwinds
Demographic Challenge Will Only Dent, Not Stall Nation’s Growth
8/17/18 4:00 AM
By Hunter Clark and Thomas Klitgaard
China’s population is only growing at a 0.5 percent annual rate, its working-age cohort (ages 15 to 64) is shrinking, and the share of the population that is 65 and over is rising rapidly. [More]

 
Social Policy Saves Lives
Analysing Trends In Mortality Inequality In The U.S. And France
8/17/18 3:00 AM
By Janet Currie, Hannes Schwandt and Josselin Thuilliez
Understanding how inequalities in health are related to inequalities in income is a key issue for policymakers. [More]

 
Soft Knowledge
An Argument The STEM Era Is Over
8/17/18 2:00 AM
By Bob Lefsetz
The STEM era is over. [More]

 
acuteobservations
Acute Observations, week ending August 17, 2018
Perceptive Commentary from August 1-17, 2018
8/17/18 8:00 AM
John Brennan
Mr. Trump’s claims of no collusion are, in a word, hogwash.

The only questions that remain are whether the collusion that took place constituted criminally liable conspiracy, whether obstruction of justice occurred to cover up any collusion or conspiracy, and how many members of “Trump Incorporated” attempted to defraud the government by laundering and concealing the movement of money into their pockets. [More]

 
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