A Journal of Independent Research, Analysis,
 Opinion and Insight

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Down But Undaunted
Samantha McLemore Persisting In Quest for Value, Compounders
That’s Samantha McLemore in the photo gracing this page, the young woman whom investment legend Bill Miller earlier this year tapped to take over his Opportunity Funds, and the management of Miller Value, when he officially releases the reins in a matter of weeks.

The picture doesn’t lie, She’s remarkably undaunted about filling those huge shoes, and even about the funds’ bout of underperformance. Not that she likes it, one bit.

But patience is Samantha's thing. Also the name of the investment advisory firm she founded a couple of years ago, Patient Capital Management. Goal One was establishing a footprint in the institutional portfolio management arena, in part to plug a hole in MVP’s menu of offerings.

Pension Fund Pratfalls
Ever “Stretching” For Yield. Another Orange Co. In the Offing?
12/09/22 8:00 AM
By A Gary Shilling
Pension funds are basically money set aside today and promised to current and future retirees, along with dividends and appreciation on those funds. This structure is inherently challenging since the investment decisions by employers today may not come to fruition until they are long gone from their institutions.

Sharing The Blame
CEOs Also Preparing For Recession
12/09/22 7:00 AM
By Dave Rosenberg
I was criticized recently by one of the many trolls, who follows me on Twitter, that I just seem to be aching for a recession. Far from it.

Calling “Bull”
On Calls Of A New Bull Market In the Old DJIA
12/09/22 6:00 AM
By Doug Ramsey
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the oldest stock market composite of them all, is given short shrift by our (still bearish) Major Trend Index. Somehow, the DJIA figures into only four of the MTI’s roughly 130 inputs!

Touch Me And I’ll Sue
Doth Virtu Financial Protest Too Much SEC’s Unwritten New Rules
12/09/22 5:00 AM
By Joe Saluzzi
Why are some market participants so afraid of the expected SEC market structure reform proposals? According to the WSJ, one market participant has already filed a lawsuit against the SEC even though the proposal hasn’t been filed yet:
“Virtu Financial on Tuesday filed a lawsuit against the SEC to enforce a months-old Freedom of Information Act request seeking information on whom the agency is consulting about the planned regulatory changes.”
We were surprised that such a visible and vocal critic of the SEC would take such an early, aggressive action. And again, it made us wonder why retail brokers and market makers are so afraid of the market structure proposals? This made us think about an academic paper that was published in the summer titled: “Price Improvement and Payment for Order Flow: Evidence from A Randomized Controlled Trial”.

Fond Memories...
Can Yesterday’s Lessons Work In Today’s Massively Different Markets?
12/09/22 4:00 AM
By Peter Lerner
A Few Words Before We Start …

We were part of an office located in downtown and, later, midtown Manhattan, from 1978 (when I joined) to 2015 (when I left). Starting in 1986, I worked with colleagues to manage the Kaufmann Fund, a small-cap growth fund, which in 2001 became the Federated Kaufmann Fund (by then a mid-cap fund, as the erstwhile small-cap companies in the portfolio had grown into mid-caps), to which was added the Federated Kaufmann Small-Cap Fund (in 2002) and the Federated Kaufmann Large-Cap Fund (in 2007).

Rich Picking In Stocks
But Best Avoid Groundhog Day In SPX Meat Grinder
12/09/22 8:20 AM
By Blaze Tankersley
Writing about the stock market (SPX) is real groundhog day stuff. A cacophony of ever violent moves that at the end of the day leave us still churning at the old “internal low” of May, after all these months. [More]

A Recession Ahead
Why, And Where To Look For Shelter
12/09/22 7:20 AM
By Gail Dudack
When we look at the history of inflation, the history of Federal Reserve policy, and recent economic data, it is easy to conclude that a recession is either at hand, or at least on the horizon. But before we explain why we believe a recession is likely, it is also important to point out that the next recession should be different than those recently experienced, and hopefully more manageable. [More]

Technical Signals
JOLTS Sell, Crude Support, 10-Year T-Note, Indices, Gold, Banks
12/09/22 6:20 AM
By Andrew Addison
In the August 4th TIV we reported that Total US Job Openings had generated a Sell signal. The total for May broke down from a topping formation and pierced the 8-month moving average. [More]

Beijing’s Quiet Influence
What Happens In China Does Not Stay In China
12/09/22 8:00 AM
By William Barcelona, Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Jasper Hoek, Eva Van Leemput
Spillovers from China to global financial markets have been found to be small owing to China’s limited integration in the global financial system. [More]

Payment For Order Flow
A Randomized Controlled Study Of “Price Improvement”
12/09/22 7:00 AM
By Bradford Levy
There is ongoing debate as to whether the practice known as “payment for order flow” (PFOF) leads to price improvement for retail investors. [More]

Economics Of Marriage
Evidence From China
12/09/22 6:00 AM
By Zhitong Gao, Jihong Pang and Hongyong Zhou
Marriage market imbalances are common in modern society for social and economic reasons, including the increased cost of marriage caused by high housing prices and an imbalance in the number of men and women. [More]