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 Opinion and Insight

 
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fullissue
WOWS — Full Issue
An Alternative Way To View Or Print The Entire Current Issue As A Single Document
5/25/18 3:00 AM
Attention Paid-Up Subscribers: To read or print the entire current issue as a single document, use the "easyprint" feature in the "Nav bar" to the right to open it, or any of WOWS' individual features, as an Adobe PDF file, and then print it. Alternatively, you can click "more" at the bottom of this paragraph and then click the red Adobe icon that appears. Your second click will download the full issue .pdf file of WOWS' latest issue to your computer, a process that -- depending on the file size and your connection speed -- might take more than the blink of an eye. Then, depending on preferences you've set on your device, it will either open automatically or show up in your downloads folder, waiting to be opened. [More]
 
listeningin
"The End of Indexing"
Niel Jensen's Reasoned Case for Active, Niche Investing Now
5/25/18 3:01 PM
Niels C. Jensen, the founder and CIO of London’s Absolute Return Partners LLP, and highly 
regarded author of its internationally known Absolute Return Letter, isn’t at all the sort of investment manager and advisor given to bombast. Far from it. 

Before founding Absolute Return in 2002, the Danish banker put in stints in London at Shearson Lehman, Goldman Sachs — where he was co-head of its European equity business between 1992 and 1996 — when he joined Oppenheimer to run its European operations. [More]
 
guestperspectives
Bleak House
Slowing Growth, Over-Achieving Consumers, Wages, Jobs & Jobless
5/25/18 8:00 AM
By Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood
Bleak House
In a new NBER working paper, Robert Gordon asks “Why has economic growth slowed when innovation appears to be accelerating?” It’s easy to get distracted by the latest quarterly growth figures —and even be impressed when they come in above 2% — and forget the long sweep of history. Between 1920 and 1970, U.S. GDP growth averaged 3.7% a year; over the last decade, it’s been 1.6%, a decline of 57%. [More]

 
Are We There Yet?
Peak Monetary Policy Tightening’s Impact on Equities Strategies
5/25/18 7:00 AM
By Solomon Tadesse
Financial markets respond to changes in monetary policy. After years of ultra loose monetary policy following the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has been on a tightening course, with the current Fed Funds rate standing at 1.5-1.75%. Yet despite the fact that unemployment is at an historic low, inflation has been uncharacteristically muted for an economy at such a late stage in the business cycle, driving the consensus view that we may still be far away from the top of the rate cycle, with official projections suggesting a path that could go beyond 2020. [More]

 
chartsightings
Take The Easy Profits
Selected Oils Likely Great Investments But Will Take Patience
5/25/18 7:01 AM
By Blaze Tankersley
Back on 1/31 we opened up long XOP via a short put as we worked with the forecast seasonality and took a “shotgun,” approach to the sector buying them all on top of the core stocks we had been focused on. I wrote,

“Seasonality in oil was off last year so we are cognizant of that but I could easily paint that as a bullish thing. [More]

 
GE Is Still A Value Trap
Tech Still Leading; A Buy On Apple
5/25/18 6:01 AM
By Andrew Addison
Despite a few buy recommendations from the Sell-side this week, GE remains a “Value Trap” in my work. First, GE’s monthly chart shows that after 20 support was smashed, GE is trying to hold trendline support @14. [More]

 
Corporates’ Sinking Spell
Bond’s Worst Tumble Since 2000
5/25/18 5:01 AM
By Cecile Gutscher
You need to rifle through 18 years of history to find selloffs that compare to the one corporate bond investors are now enduring.

Debt of American companies just posted their third-worst 100-day returns since 2000, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. [More]

 
deepdive
Economic Predictions
Big Data And The Illusion Of Sparsity
5/25/18 8:00 AM
By Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, and Giorgio Primiceri
The availability of large data sets, combined with advances in the fields of statistics, machine learning, and econometrics, have generated interest in forecasting models that include many possible predictive variables. [More]

 
Metro Movers
Where Are Americans Moving For Jobs, And Is It Worth It?
5/25/18 7:00 AM
By Andrew Chamberlain
Moving for a job is a big decision. [More]

 
Fed Household Survey
2017 Study Finds Growth, Improvement, Distress, Fragility, Disparities
5/25/18 6:00 AM
By Jeff Larrimore, Alex Durante, Kimberly Kreiss, Christina Park, and Claudia Sahm
This report describes the responses to the fifth annual Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED). [More]

 
Cohort Study
Demographic Model Forecasts Big Drops In Labor Participation
5/25/18 5:00 AM
By Francesco Grigoli, Zsoka Koczan, and Petia Topalova
Advanced economies are in the midst of a major demographic transition, with the number of elderly rising precipitously relative to the working-age population. [More]

 
Regional Variations
Labor Participation And Impact Of Trade And Technology
5/25/18 4:00 AM
By  Benjamin Hilgenstock, Zsoka Koczan
The United States stands out among advanced economies with marked declines in labor force participation. [More]

 
acuteobservations
Acute Observations, week ending May 25, 2018
Perceptive Commentary from May 12-25, 2018
5/25/18 8:00 AM
Art Cashin, quoting Barry Habib
My good friend and acknowledged mortgage maven, Barry Habib was kind enough to send an update on his yield outlook. Here’s what Barry wrote:

A quick update on the 10-year. Yields did climb to within a hair of our target at 3.04% on April 25th. [More]

 
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