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11 09 2018 WOWS FULL ISSUE
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Merge Masters Tales of Arbitrage
No Soothsayers, These
For ECRI's Achuthan and Banerji It's All About Cycle Data Analysis
11/09/18 3:13 AM
Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji have your number, and yours and yours. Practically the whole world’s, in fact, as co-founders of Manhattan’s Economic Cycle Research Institute — or ECRI as it’s more often known. (Lakshman handles operations, Anirvan directs research.) 

Widely known for the uncanny accuracy of the calls it makes about turning points in the economic cycle, ECRI is the economics shop for non-economists. By training and inclination, neither ECRI founder spends time tinkering with econometric models, nor do they expend intellectual capital arguing the finer points of neo-Monetarist versus neo-Keynesian religious beliefs, for either fun or profit. [More]
Manufacturing Slowdown
Risks To Growth Tilted To Downside
11/09/18 8:00 AM
By Dave Rosenberg
Global manufacturing activity, as per the IHS Markit data, slowed further in October, with the headline PMI composite falling to a nearly two-year low of 52.1. And early indications are that we will see further weakness in the months ahead, as the forward-looking new orders index touched a 25-month low. [More]

The Heart Of The Matter
Can’t Rely On Limits To Speculation In Brave New World
11/09/18 7:00 AM
By John P Hussman
Let’s be clear. October’s market decline was a rather mild warning shot. [More]

Global Investment Field
Lower Expecations, Lower Allocations
11/09/18 6:00 AM
By Dimitri Balatsos
Global Growth — Up the Down Escalator
The synchronized acceleration in global growth anticipated by the consensus earlier this year has lost its shine. By our own count, 2Q2018 was the peak in the rate of growth in this business cycle. [More]

When History Rhymes
Pay Attention To Its Warnings
11/09/18 5:00 AM
By Christine Lagarde
Mark Twain once said that “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” As heads of state gather in Paris this week to mark 100 years since the end of World War I, they should listen closely to the echoes of history and avoid replaying the discordant notes of the past.

For centuries, our global economic fortunes have been shaped by the twin forces of technological advancement and global integration. [More]

Upgrade On Financials
Regional Banks, Insurers Look To Be Defensive Winners
11/09/18 9:01 AM
By Michael Belkin
Financials are upgraded to an outperform rating in this week’s report. XLF is the S&P500 financial sector ETF. [More]

What Now For The S&P?
Taking “Sell” Off Of Facebook; Equal-Weight Indices Lag
11/09/18 8:01 AM
By Andrew Addison
We are removing the Sell on FACEBOOK from September 21st @163. FB hit a 139 low last week, from which it formed a Positive Volume Swing . [More]

Patience the Key As Broken Stocks Find, Test Bottoms
11/09/18 7:01 AM
By Blaze Tankersley
On November 5th I wrote,

“The bear retains the edge clearly but the market is saying that it has discounted what is probable and only real black swan results are likely to disturb the consolidating and retesting process. Expect choppy results must continue as the downside momentum runs out in this episode. [More]

Fading “TINA”
Could Active Management’s Stock Rise As Fed Slims Balance Sheet?
11/09/18 6:01 AM
By A Gary Shilling
Among investors the “tina” concept is fading —There Is No Alternative to equities. So they’ve been shifting assets from riskier ones such as emerging-market stock funds that pay higher fees to managers to lower-cost assets such as money-market funds that had their biggest net inflows in the third quarter since the last quarter of 2014. [More]

Insiders & Buyouts
Do Managers Undervalue Assets “To Help Themselves”?
11/09/18 8:00 AM
By Jarrad Harford, Jared R Stanfield, and Feng Zhang
Conflicts of interest arise in management buyouts (MBOs) and freezeouts: the acquirers (managers and controlling shareholders) have an incentive to pay the lowest price to selling shareholders, despite having a fiduciary duty to them. [More]

Challenges To Growth
Economic Outlook For The Globe
11/09/18 7:00 AM
By The International Monetary Fund
The steady expansion under way since mid-2016 continues, with global growth for 2018–19 projected to remain at its 2017 level. [More]

Stagnating Well-Being
Despite Increasing Levels Of Government Support
11/09/18 6:00 AM
By Ajit Zacharias, Thomas Masterson, and Fernando Rios-Avila
The Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being (LIMEW) was designed to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the changes affecting household living standards. [More]

Acute Observations, November 9, 2018
Perceptive Commentary from November 1-9, 2018
11/09/18 8:00 AM
Nicholas Kristof
Democrats should look at referendum results as a glimpse of a road map forward. Three conservative states — Utah, Nebraska and Idaho — appear to have voted to expand Medicaid. Two other conservative states, Arkansas and Missouri, raised the minimum wage. [More]

© 2017 Welling On Wall Street, LLC.